I am preparing for the worst throughout all levels of society in the year ahead, and if it does not happen then I can be positively surprised.
My basic assumptions:
1) Crime will increase. Respect for law at all levels will suffer from a deterioration of ‘tone at the top’. Law enforcement offices will be overwhelmed and most crimes will go undeterred. Crime trends like theft, unregistered vehicles, hidden license plates, fake IDs, business tax evasion, and things that cannot be controlled through cyber enforcement will continue to expand.
2) While collar prosecutions will become more politicized and primarily used as a form of vengeance against political enemies. An increase in government and corporate corruption will eventually show up as a drag on the economy but not immediately.
3) The economy will be in recession after two negative growth quarters. Inflation will return to higher levels.
4) The ongoing trend of widening wealth and income gap will accelerate. Big businesses will prosper. Small businesses will suffer.
5) Unlicensed markets for goods and services will increase. Tax evasion will spread.
6) Discontent among working class will increase. More people will join the chorus that the nation and the world are headed in the wrong direction.
7) Sustainability will move away from a public policy and will be more of a for-profit investment niche.
8) Civil rights for people other than affluent straight white males will suffer so the social tone will be darker outside of sheltered communities.
I will write in later posts how my business and my clients are preparing for the year ahead.