My 2017-2018 economic and political forecast

“It’s still the economy, stupid”

My fundamental forecasting premise is that the current federal administration’s fate and effectiveness in this divided country ultimately lies in the direction of the economy. Given the basic current macroeconomic factors:

  1. high stock market
  2. low interest rates
  3. high level of entitlements, and
  4. the low level of unemployment,

I conclude that current conditions are unsustainable over an extended period of more than a year and suspect the economic odds are very much stacked against this us as consumers and this administration. It other words, the economy for working class is far more likely to get worse than get better between now and the mid-term election in 2018.


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